European Economics

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European Economics

Preview of the Greek elections

Less than a week before the Greek general election (May 6) the outcome

remains uncertain. Support for the two main parties – New Democracy (centerright)

and PASOK (socialists) – is at historical lows with the share of the protest

vote and the undecided remaining very high. The latest polls published more

than a week ago, suggest that although the New Democracy party is leading the

polls, it will not be in a position to get a majority in parliament.

A coalition government between New Democracy and PASOK is the most likely

scenario in our view. Both parties have committed to support the EU/IMF

programme. It is unclear however at this point, if such a coalition will enjoy a

strong majority in parliament. Tensions among its members and strong

opposition from the anti-bailout parties may question its stability.

In the scenario under which New Democracy and PASOK fail to create a

coalition government, a broader coalition with other parties that are not strong

supporters of the EU/IMF programme might be attempted or else another

election will follow suit. Both outcomes would add uncertainty and create doubts

on the successful implementation of the programme reforms.

For more:
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=gmail&attid=0.1&thid=1371bb625d412e77&mt=application/pdf&url=https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui%3D2%26ik%3Dc5d8ca0f2f%26view%3Datt%26th%3D1371bb625d412e77%26attid%3D0.1%26disp%3Dsafe%26realattid%3Dbef7fa0d345a0d83_0.1%26zw&sig=AHIEtbT4TFLFd7QjSpTZ0chaOVrW_i9iUg